Roy Ho’s Blog

CNN interviewed James Miles from “The Economist”.  Miles was in Beijing in 1989.  He knows what an organized activity with Chinese style is like.  However, James Miles says he does not “see any organized activity.”  However, James Miles also provided some clue to the kind of organization (or the lack of) in this incident: 

“They marked those businesses that they knew to be Tibetan owned with white traditional scarves” 

The transcript of the interview is here:

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/03/20/tibet.miles.interview/ 

It is unlikely Dalai Lama is behind it.  However, white scarves had been organized.  Since no one has given these organizers a name, I get the naming right: White Scarves Organization.   

A better transportation and communication network for Tibet also means more difficult for government to control everything.  This organization may not have reached the sophistication it needs, but it certainly has put itself on the radar of everyone in this trade.   

India increasingly considers the Tibetan issue a baggage to its Chinese relationship.  However, India cannot just drop it, just like Israel cannot just drop Gaza.  If White Scarves Organization increases its sophistication, scale and damage, then it will push Mainland China to find a solution, be it a negotiation or harder crack down.   

Mainland China started to learn how to play the soft power of influence maybe about 10 years ago or so.  It is getting better.  However, it has not learnt how to play this game domestically.  Very often, it is still seeing domestic power as Us vs Them.  Therefore, the path to this lesson is uncharted.  A better way to achieve this wisdom is to learn it through the governance of Hong Kong since there is a lower level of mistrust against a former British colony inhibited by Hans.   

The sad news is, everyone is running against time, not the count down on Olympics, but the count down on Dalai Lama.  Dalai Lama was born in 1935.  He is 73 years old.  He remains healthy.  But everything has its time.   

When Dalai Lama passes away, then there will be no spiritual leader among the exile Tibetans.  A new Dalai Lama will take another 2 decades to become effective, if at all he will be a political figure in addition to his religious duties.  The movement will turn violent or die down among the Tibetans.   

Mainland China will take the opportunity to find a Dalai reincarnation domestically.  If this domestic Dalai Lama is any good, an end for these 2 Dalai Lama will be difficult.  The status of them will obviously be part of the negotiation and political solutions were provided at times during Qing dynasty.  Again, the mandate of heaven was delivered through draws.  A negotiation will then be decades away, if any.  No end will be in sight any of our life times.  This will last just as long as Palestinian cause is going to be.   

Who will get the most out of it?  India already dreads this outcome.  Tom Clancy and the like will have more material to write about.

Taiwan’s presidential election is to be held on 2008.03.22.A.  Since Taiwan is half a day ahead of US, the stations will open starting tonight.  What is at stake (of your wallet)?  CNN gives a decent last day summary: 

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/03/21/taiwan.elections.ap/index.html 

The first industry is computer component manufacturing.  Taiwan’s computer component manufacturing has the greatest market share in the world.  It will directly affect the manufacturing costs of everyone from Dell and HP to IBM.  Taiwan’s computer component manufacturers can produce any kind of PCs without outside vendors.  The only thing they lack is brand name.  If Ma Ying-jeouwins this election, the costs from these manufacturers will come down because Ma Ying-jeou’s policy will favour stronger commercial ties between Mainland China and Taiwan.   

Financial services industry will get a real boost.  If Ma Ying-jeouwins, that will create foreseeable stability required for Taiwan.  FDI will increase as a result.  Taiwan FIs will be able operate in Mainland, not only a greater amount of them, but also in a greater geographic span.  Currently, only 1 bank is allowed to operate in only 1 city in China.  Capital of Taiwan residents and companies held in overseas will also flow back to domestic market.   

Shipping and hospitality industries will get receive more customers from Mainland China.  Taiwan airlines will get a better coverage in the future.  Their air fleets will finally get the cash flow to finance needed replacements.   

However, this is not a sure win for Ma Ying-jeou.  DPP is within a striking distance.  The poll may suggest a comfortable lead for Ma Ying-jeouover DPP by US standard.  These polls are known to be unreliable not by the bias of the pollsters but by voters.  DPP voters traditionally lie to the pollsters or remain silent.  Conventional wisdom gives an additional 20% point to DPP. 

In the case of a DPP victory, it will not be the end of the world.  CPP may have learnt something no one is privy of in this election and thus gave sweet announcement to DPP’s outgoing president Chen Shui-bian in the past days to prepare for DPP’s victory.  If DPP indeed wins, computer component manufacturing will not get anything as a result.  FIs will not get the benefit above.  Shipping and hospitality will get some reward due to DPP’s convergence of its Mainland policy to Ma Ying-jeou.  However, the benefit will not be as great.  Agriculture has been rumored to be negatively affected by this election in the case of Ma Ying-jeou.  However, Taiwan does not have big publicly traded agriculture companies.   

The advantage of Taiwan’s agriculture over Mainland is the R&D side of agriculture.  The most potential of Taiwan’s agriculture is how to turn their R&D into more productive scale: for a bigger market and/or for more capital intensive firms. 

All Japanese firms with heavy investments in Taiwan will get affected.  One particular industry people may oversee is content distribution industry.  If KMT wins, these firms may get crowded by a Mainland fever.  So, these contents range from comic books to cables to films.