Power And Dollar

Manley is getting warmed up


Why did Manley accept to head Afgan panel chairmanship?  Harper wanted to see the divide in the post Dion Liberal leadership contest.  Manley did not want to participate in the last leadership contest since Martin’s contest was too bitter and it would have been difficult for Manley to unite the whole party anyway.  That open race gave Canada Dion.  If Liberals continue to stay weak, Dion will be out after the coming federal election, whenever that is.  And it is only then could Manley go for a contest.  For that reason, Manley has stayed with his private law practice in Ottawa. 

However, Manley was not out of politics.  He was already preparing for the next round.  He cultivated his clientele properly.  He enlarged his donor base.  He continues to reward his supporters in order to oil/maintain his political machine. 

The fact he accepted the panel chairmanship was an indication that he wants to stays current in the TV box so that voters will not see him as outdated, as voters would see Sheila Copps as outdated, should she choose to run for leadership again next time.  Even today, many people may already find Sheila Copps outdated, but not really so for Manley, although Manley has more white hair than Copps.

Harper “may” make Manley a super envoy means Harper already thinks Manley would accept the position, whether it was communicated between the two is another business.  After all, even if they did not communicate personally fact to face, they had been MP together for a long time.  If they did not know each other that well, there are enough people to serve as the go between.  So, this mutal understanding is immaterial.  The fact remains that there is a great certainty the buyer and the seller have met.  The dealing probably is still on the pending status and not closed.

The next question to ask:

Why would Harper want Manley?  Why wouldn’t he reward some of his allies?

One: maybe Harper prefers fighting Manley, thinking Harper would be in an easier position to beat Liberals if Manley were in charge.  Manley, ideologically, is a little more right than some of the Liberals, especially in the environmental issues.  Manley’s donor base is the traditional Liberal type.  This is a clear advantage to Harper.  An elitest right wing/middlepath party cannot compete against a populist right party because public funding for election has rubbed off the benefit of being financially elitest.  Public funded election is about head counts.  Election without public funding is both head counts and dollar counts.

Two: Harper wants to see a divide after Dion.  Harper wants to see a bitter fight within the Liberals.  Harper may not be too concerned if Manley is a better politican than Harper.  Harper may simply be thinking that the divide would weaken Liberals greatly and make the good Manley (however/what this good is) ineffective. 

Did Harper see Manley vs. Rae? Manley vs. Ignatieff?  Manley vs. Kennedy?

Harper probaly would not have been concerned with Rae.  Time will take care of this problem already, however good Rae is.  Kennedy?  Harper may think the loss of Dion may weaken Kennedy as well since Dion does not represent an interest as much as an ideal (and some Quebec tradition).  Besides, Kennedy means the left would get very crowded and leaving more space to right for Harper to take.  Harper should be fairly comfortable with that.  Harper was probably thinking about Manley vs. Ignatieff or Manley vs. unknown.  Harper wants to strengthen Manley so that there will be a long lasting, bitter, trench warfare among the Liberals for the years, just like Chretein and Martin. 


February 20, 2008 - Posted by | canada politics | , , , ,

1 Comment »

  1. […] for this election.  How did Bob Rae come to this conclusion?  Well, not that he read this or this.  it is just very reasonable.  Bob Rae probably saw the “dual use” of everything Manley did. […]

    Pingback by John Manley Smells Blood? Or Avoided His Own Peril? « Power And Dollar | November 3, 2008 | Reply

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