Power And Dollar

What Is Beijing’s Next Move On Tibet?

The protesters have caught up the Olympics torch and getting more media exposure than Beijing would hope for.  What is Beijing doing? Do they want to take some initiative back? What is their Tibet plan? 

No government would intentionally turn its land into another Gaza.  Every story has its ending.  Does China know how it wants this story to end? 

China is known to make decision based on long time-horizon.  Since a US president has 4 years in a term and at 8 years at most, US presidents expect returns of their political actions in a much shorter time frame.  Just consider Bush 2: Bush is still thinking of Israel and Palestine although he has 10 months left.  EU has a longer time perspective becasue they have a larger public servant work force, fewer political appointments and therefore career beaucrats can afford to wait for the comings and goings of politicians.  China is known to make decisions that can bear fruits a few decades from their decision points.  So, does China have a grand game-plan for Tibet?

No country plans to split a part of its land to become an independent country, unless it realizes it can no longer keep the land in question.  China is no different.  China is just waiting. 

China is waiting for Dalai Lama to recarnate so that the younger generation of Tibetans will get themselves marginalized.  The youthful Tibetans, the generation of Tibetans born in India, will either 1) get assimulated into India and its Tibetan identity gets disintegrated slowly or 2) become marginalized and ridiculed by the main stream society of India as a liability over time. 

The Tibetan political movement (even gets a state sponsor, and guess who) can only become more radical, once Dalai Lama recarnate, in order to strengthen its bargaining power against Beijing.  And this is when Beijing can convenient label this movement as a terrorist group. 

After all, all the Tibetan causes are united by a Dalai Lama.  An absence of Dalai Lama for 15, 20 years will disintegrate all these causes into different directions.  And no single force can unite them again.  What will remain true to itself is the religious movement.  However, when the language and all the cultural elements reside in China, the interpretation of fundementals of Tibetan Bhuddism rests in the hands of China. 

With the forseeable future of a splitered groups among the Tibetan causes, a more militant Tibetan group destined to be marginalized with or without other state sponsors, a weakening Dalai Lama due to age, China decides to wait for a decade or more to wear out all these movements. 

Here is the update from CNN just now and Associated Press at 0918 EST:

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/US/04/08/olympic.torch.ap/index.html#cnnSTCText

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April 8, 2008 - Posted by | China, china politics, Current Events, 西藏, Tibet, wordpress-political-blogs, 中國 |

2 Comments »

  1. Dalailama is such a messer~~ Olympic game is just a feast, people who like it, join it, if someone has other problems, solve it at other time, don’t ruin the people who want to enjoy.

    I really don’t understand how Dalailama define “human right”. As I know, before 1950’s, Tibet is under controled by Dalailama as slavery, innocent people’s life were raped and sacrificed to their bloody “religion”. Even Dalailama is exiled now, he and his followers are still trying to destroy the Tibet society, as it happened in March, the Dalai clique burnt innocent citizen’s house, 20-year-old girl was burnt alive! hooooo~ horrible! I can’t imagine what will happen if offer these crazy people the “human right” they want, that is not gonna happen! because Dalailama and his followers all over the world are MURDERERS!

    I am not any government’s guard, but let’s open our own eyes before we use the term such as “human right” or “government crackdown” when talking about china’s issue, as we know, china is a very complex country, multi-culture, multi-religion, multi-ethnics… oh, besides, they have billions of population, there is no second such complex country in this world any more, Frankly speaking, china’s government has already done the best to balance the benefits to all the people with different interests, what they have done is the best choice, we can’t be too judgmental. Maybe it is not as perfect as in ideal world, but when I traveled to Lhasa, what i saw is a prosperous city, i can’t ignore china government’s contributions to tibet, those schools and hospitals, those luxury hotels and plateau railways…I was impressed by how rich the citizens and Lama’s were.

    I really can’t see why Dalailama keep claiming that china’s goverment holocaust 12 million Tibetans during 1950’s, which actually by then, the total population of tibetan was only 3million~~ it’s really doubtable, isn’t it?! Well, anyway, as an exiled “leader”, Dalailama has to lie sometime, otherwise how to keep his pathetic followers!

    Comment by cici | April 9, 2008 | Reply

  2. hallo brainwashed,ignorant educate you cici. you are repeating what your so called “governtment”‘s rewritten Tibetans’ history. The Dalai Lama is True leader of tibetan who preach non violence, compassion, and wellbeings of tibetans and people of the world.you are included but, sad you cannot get to hera to hear and give thoughts to His teachings .you are communist.
    You are not your government’s guard but a kind jumping jack that doesn’t have brain of own. I am sorry to dissapoint you that the pictures you have of Tibet is not correct and illinformed.These are made of hand picked Mao’s party to gain Tibet.Please dont me again about Ming’s and Jing’s or Pimp’s Dynasty.
    you have no right to commment on Tibet.You don’t even know what will be done by your own government in backyard tommorow and you will left standing finger in your mouth.You even cannot raise your voice. Thats your so called Government.You have no “Government” but dictators who let CHinese people dance to their tune and you have not even right makes your voice heard.
    I suggest you dont try making or againts your HU’s Party like we in the free world.You will end in Jail. Take care keep parroting.

    Comment by ihatecommunistchina | April 25, 2008 | Reply


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