Power And Dollar

Dalai Lama Meeting China? What Can They Accomplish?

China wants to meet Dalai Lama’s representatives.  Why is it announcement now?  What can this meeting accomplish? 

 

Beijing made the announcement today because EU trade delegation arrived Beijing.  Currency exchange rate is a big topic, trade barrier is of course another.  Some of it is very logistics, such as business visa issuance.  In any event, having a nice announcement today can delay and defuse some tensions.


CNN reports the story here.  Similar to other media outlets, CNN has already put sandbags on this meeting: don’t expect much because this meeting could be a PR ploy to defuse all the possible upcoming Tibetan activists may stage.  And even if Dalai Lama is fully convinced that this meeting is unproductive, Dalai Lama will still send his representatives to meet China.

 

Why will Dalai Lama still want to meet China for an unproductive meeting?

 

If he does not, he will be blamed as spoiler.  However, China probably wants this meet bad enough that they must have relaxed the conditions of meeting.  After all, Dalai Lama already said both sides have been in contact since early April.  So they are already in talks for weeks to set up a talk.  The announcement from the Beijing is an indication that at least Dalai Lama is comfortable with the agenda, even if that agenda may have unproductive outcome.  

 

There are a few things we can observe.  If we see a series of talks stretching out, then please do not celebrate that as an indication of progress.  That only means to stall the protests word wide and divert political pressure of the foreign governments from their domestic constituency asking for do-something. 

 

The place is likely to be within Mainland China, to symbolize that it is an internal affairs.  If it were in a third party, China would be afraid that the meeting has evolved into a nation-to-nation meeting.  However, the question remains: where will it take place, in China?  The location would be an indication how serious Beijing takes this meeting.  

 

Will this be a publicized or secretive meeting?  The press of course would not get invited during the talk.  But will there be photo op announced to the press in advance? Will there be joint announcement?  If there will be joint announcement, then this will be a meeting of substance.  

 

 

Even if Beijing is not intent to just stage another stall tactics and meant well to accomplish something, it is still practically difficult.  Positions of both sides are clear since they already spent a few decades to sort out the differences.  Beijing hates to be seen as to giving concessions to separatists.  Beijing waited for 8 years for President Chen of Taiwan to retire from office and waited a few decades on the issue of Dalai Lama.  Holding off another 5 or 10 years does not bear additional political costs, both domestically and internationally.  

 

Beijing simply is stretched at this moment to have a serious talk.  All resources are diverted to Olympics.  And Beijing sees that it is much easier to accomplish something from the Taiwan problem.  Therefore, for whatever remaining energy and resources from the top leadership will be dedicated to Taiwan.  For Dalai Lama, the meeting has to be measured against the level of civil servants Taiwan enjoys.  

 

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April 25, 2008 - Posted by | advocacy, China, Current Events, environment, 西藏, opinion, politics, Thoughts, Tibet, wordpress-political-blogs, 中國 |

10 Comments »

  1. I saw a take on this subject at STRATFOR. They spoke to the thought that the Chinese would be hard pressed to publicly speak with the DL/Tibetans.Your take on both sides are pretty good. Thanks.

    Comment by Alfie | April 25, 2008 | Reply

  2. Don’t mix up Taiwan and Tibet problem, they are different. Beijing always opened the door to Dalai Lama, if he agreed to give up independence of Tibet since 1959. China still said same. This is old policy,not new. Only because West medie never bother reported. If you ask any Chinese speaker who will tell you, Beijing has always opened the door.

    Tibet is part of China about 650 years, will be continuously part of China. Chnese’s Tibetans life are getting better and better, It is a fact. If Dalai Lama really wants do some thing for Tibetans, doing something good for their lift, not only to achieve his ambition.

    Comment by Jean | April 25, 2008 | Reply

  3. Dear CNN and other Western media,

    Please would you at least learn how to properly pronounce our capitol as Bei-jing, not Bei-zhing? Otherwise, it could happen that next Christmas, when you are opening all your Chinese ‘junk’ gifts, you will hear a chorus of 1.3 billion Chinese singing Zhingle Bells outside your door. That is, once we buy Coca Cola and teach the world to sing in perfect harmony.

    Comment by Li | April 26, 2008 | Reply

  4. And by the way, ‘zh’ is pronounced more like ‘j’ in Chinese. So either way, it will remain Bei-jing, as it has for thousands and thousands of years, pre and post CNN.

    Comment by Li | April 26, 2008 | Reply

  5. i am a musician. i truely believe in peace and that we must solve our problem through talks. but unfortunately the chinese dont really believe in solving the tibet issue through peace. they only believe in their material power. this stuff about talking to the dalai lama is just another lie to defuse the tention before the olympics. so let us not be fooled. the only way is to have dalai lama and hu jintao on the same round table talk with mediators of the international community. dont trust the chinese at all.

    Comment by loten namling | April 26, 2008 | Reply

  6. I found something interesting posted @ http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_4eecdc1c01009ciz.html. Hope you can spare a minute of your time looking at it.Never mind the articles if you don’t understand because it is written in Mandarin; But, DO look at the photos / pics pasted. It shows something refreshingly different from what we have been fed with all these days. A picture can tell thousand words, doesn’t it ?….yes, it happened in Colgate,USA !

    Comment by PC | April 26, 2008 | Reply

  7. This is a good time for the dialogue. After all the performances, Dalai Lama has nothing left; we have all the facts, and it is the time to use those to negotiate with Dalai Lama and unveil his LIE. Then he has no capital to call for his “NON-VIOLENCE” theorem again. Nobel Peach Prize Winner? What an interesting world. Ha…..

    Chinese government uses this to defuse the tension? Yes, but it is for the whole world.
    China is not the loser in this game, not even a bit, although we didn’t plot it, but the bankers, some media, some governments a Nobel Peach Prize Winner and his followers…

    Chinese government is always good at time. Let’s just check it out what happens next…

    Hard time for all the governments involved ha? That is really exciting. Ha….

    Comment by new0age | April 26, 2008 | Reply

  8. A POEM FOR THE WEST

    When We were called Sick man of Asia, We were called The Peril.
    When We are billed to be the next Superpower, We are called The threat.

    When We were closed our doors, You smuggled Drugs to Open Markets.
    When We Embrace Freed Trade, You blame us for Taking away your jobs.
      
    When We were falling apart, You marched in your troops and wanted your “fair share”.
    When We were putting the broken peices together again, “Free t¡bet” you screamed, “it was an invasion!”
    ( When Woodrow Wilson Couldn’t give back Birth Place of Confucius back to Us,
    But He did bought a ticket for the Famine Relief Ball for us.)
      
    So, We Tried Communism, You hated us for being Communists
    When We embrace Capitalism, You hate us for being Capitalist.
     
    When We have a Billion People, you said we were destroying the planet.
    When We are tried limited our numbers, you said It was human rights abuse.

    When We were Poor, You think we are dogs.
    When We Loan you cash, You blame us for your debts.
      
    When We build our industries, You called us Polluters.
    When we sell you goods, You blame us for global warming.
      
    When We buy oil, You called that exploitation and Genocide.
    When You fight for oil, You called that Liberation.
      
    When We were lost in Chaos and rampage, You wanted Rules of Law for us.
    When We uphold law and order against Violence, You called that Violating Human Rights.

    When We were silent, You said you want us to have Free Speech.
    When We were silent no more, You say we were Brainwashed-Xenophoics.
      
    Why do you hate us so much? We asked.
    “No,” You Answered, “We don’t hate You.”
      
    We don’t Hate You either,
    But Do you understand us?
      
    “Of course We do,” You said,
    “We have AFP, CNN and BBCs…”
      
    What do you really want from us?
    Think Hard first, then Answer…
      
    Because you only get so many chances,
    Enough is Enough, Enough Hypocrisy for this one world.
      
    We want One World, One Dream, And Peace On Earth.
    – This Big Blue Earth is Big Enough for all of Us.

    Comment by xyz | April 27, 2008 | Reply

  9. China’s government cannot admit that. Nor, having blamed the Dalai Lama, Tibet’s exiled spiritual leader, for the unrest, is it easy to open talks with him. So it has closed the obvious path to reconciliation with its Tibetan minority. Having lied to its people about Tibet for so long, how could it explain to them a new, less hostile policy? It seems also to have convinced many of its people of the truth of two other egregious lies: that criticism of China’s government is an attack on the Chinese people, and that dialogue is a sign of weakness. In fact, both foreign and Chinese protesters might learn something from each other. But it is hard to learn with one hand holding a megaphone and the other clenched into a fist.

    http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11089538
    Seriously Tibet is indeed a part of China but has long desired not to be. China holds onto Tibet primarily for strategic reasons.The Chinese government is hardly the innocent virgin and neither is the DL.The truth is though others can adopt any position they care too.

    Comment by Alfie | April 27, 2008 | Reply

  10. i went through the various view points; must give my understanding of the subject
    firstly tibetans are not chinese;culturally,linguistically you name it . ther is not an iota of commonality . the differences are forever.
    secondly tibetans need to invest more heavily in creating their autonomous state or indep state.all other countries can at best give moral sp. but first tibetans have to make up their mind as to what they want; accordingly the tibetan society will have to invest- jews have done it so can u.
    thirdly china must realise that by improving tibet does not make them the rightful owner of tibetans. it is akin to the ccp handing over themselvrs to us and i am sure they would improve china by leaps and bounds.distorting history is part of chinese psyche. why dont they pay tribute to tibet as was done during the Tang dynasty when tibetans were happy in tibet and chinese were happy in china.
    if both parties do not budge for a resolution then tibet would have to wait for chinese decline as history has proven , then they can regain their indep. from precedence, i think their history has been following the four decade cycle – 50 yrs have passed by another 350 to go when the world would be getting submerged in water and the roof shall ahve the last laugh; but the tibetans must last that long before being haninized

    Comment by ajay | May 3, 2008 | Reply


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