Power And Dollar

What Are The Implications Of A Nuke Free North Korea?


CNN reports the destruction of North Korea’s nuclear facilities.  What are the implications? 

The most directly impacted nation is Japan.  The confrontation pressure in the Korea peninsula is weakened.  The need for US military presence is also weakened.  The economic incentives are there.  But Japan is not Thailand.  Japan can live without that.  The impacts will be political and military for Japan due to a nuke free North Korea. 


With such a hawkish new president of South Korea, it will take quite a few years for the relations between North and South Korea to warm again.  The immediate impact on the unification movement is minimal.  After all, the nuke free decision has nothing to do with unification with the South, from North Korea’s perspective.  For North Korea, warming up with the America is one step toward having a normal diplomatic relationship.  Strengthening this relationship weakens the relationship of America and South Korea.  With any luck, North Korea wants the American bases to move out of the peninsula.  All these impacts realized by North Korea are shorter term.


Impacts on Japan are longer term.  Japan has been having influence in Korea for centuries.  A nuclear North Korea is obvious a threat to the security of Japan.  However, it has always been a common knowledge that nuclear activity is only a bargain chip.  North Korea is perceived to be aware that they cannot keep the nuclear forever, since China does not want North Korea to have it, America does not and certainly Japan does not. 


With a smaller conflict, the weight of Japan will become smaller.  This nuclear free ending of the affair also demonstrates Japan has been unable to influence the outcome of the Korea peninsula affairs, or unable to influence America’s intent in the peninsula affairs. 


An Obama administration will be able justify a reduction of military presence in South Korea and Japan and cut some spending. 


If US military decreases, especially in Okiana, the negativity generated by US military in Okinawa fades.  Therefore, a weaker Okinawan independence movement will be, although it was not that a strong one to start with, more less like the Puerto Rican.   However, with the incentives by US military gone, the incentives for Okinawa to stay in Japan also go away. 


That will create more space for Chinese military in the area.  China will gradually gain its edge against Japan in territory dispute.  However, the dispute is fairly settled since both sides have agreed to mutually develop the area.  Again, this loss of strategic importance against Japan cannot be ignored. 


The fact that Japan is losing control over the development in Korean peninsula is a sign of Japan’s HR risk.  Japan had a hard filling in their chief of central bank earlier this year.  They are unable to keep themselves abreast of the peninsula, let alone influence the outcome.  Only very few international enterprises of Japan are as innovative or as quick as they used to be.  Japan is having a high turn over of politicians and an even short life span of governments.  The ageing population is showing signs of weakness in every area.  


With that, the six party talks now prove to be useless.  Japan is now concluded to be ineffective.  South Korea lost its edge during the negotiation.  Russia has been reduced to an attendant only.  China has become more less the notary public for the talks.  The real talk somehow happened between North Korea and America behind the curtain. 



June 27, 2008 - Posted by | China, Current Events, Japan, korea, opinion, politics, Taiwan, wordpress-political-blogs

1 Comment »

  1. […] bookmarks tagged korea, north What Are The Implications Of A Nuke Free North Kor… saved by 3 others     janebutterflying bookmarked on 06/27/08 | […]

    Pingback by Pages tagged "korea, north" | June 27, 2008 | Reply

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