Power And Dollar

Where Is Russia’s Next Move?

CNN reports Russia’s military intervention looks almost as if it were an impulse response to American activities in the region.  The Georgian conflict is a response to NATO’s eastward expansion.  The format of this response is Kosovan.  Putin’s blame against America is not something he made it on the fly.  English media in Russia has been saying the same quite a while back.  Russia achieved its military objective.  What political objectives did they achieve? 

Did they manage to have a regime change?
Which country recognizes Abkhazia and South Ossetia?  Did North Korea, Cuba, Syria recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia.  Really, which country?
Did Russia provide more incentives for other countries to stay away from NATO or to join NATO?

What is the value of Georgia to Russia versus that to NATO/US?  Losing Georgia is a lot more important to Russia than to NATO/US.  However, the cost of loss to America is very small.  A simple 2 x 2 zero sum game theory matrix can show that Russia has to risk a lot for very little gain.  NATO/US has a great deal to gain with little risk. 

If Russia has a much grander master plan, then let’s all watch.  However, if Russia did not even secure China’s recognition before the conflict, then Russia had a failure in their diplomatic operating procedure. 

For Russia to reach a recent return on risking its political capital, there will need to be a second move.  Russia will need to leverage on another point that has a lot more stake for NATO/US.  Else, a better operating procedure needs to be developed in their foreign ministry.

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August 28, 2008 - Posted by | Current Events, politics, wordpress-political-blogs

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