Obama vs Palin vs Stock Performance

Since Tuesday, S&P has fallen more than 3%.  Certainly, reasons like retail and job data can point to that direction.  On the other hand, oil is easing as well which should have facilitated a spike.  A political news that may have played a bit is the announcement of Sarah Palin, the presidential contest is finally set since all the tickets are finalized.  On top of that, Palin has little experience may also point south: investors are holding cash to understand what is going on.  

 

People usually compare the presidential candidates.  However, both candidates do not have executive experience this year.  The most executive experience one has among the 4 (which should have been 2) of them has only 2 years.  Investors could be thinking: Can anyone run the show? 

 

It would be interesting to see how much of that 3% can be contributed to Palin.  With the energy Palin accentuates and the media attention she attracts (at least for now), McCain has created an instant celebrity just as well.  The question moves to: how much of that is her and how much of that is manufactured by professionals?  

 

Palin already generated more google searches than Obama (please compare to the media attention Biden against Palin).  If this trend can sustain after the Republican National Convention, then we may end up seeing the presidential race contested by Palin and Obama in the TV box.  

 

In the polling figures, Obama’s lead has been shrinking.  Given an unpopular incumbent, a flash back memory of Katrina, it is a nice surprise that a party convention (namely Republican now) gave McCain a lift in polling.

 

If Palin is really a pit bull, an effective campaigner and a quick study, then this contest between Obama and Palin probably will turn out more interesting than Obama versus Clinton.