Power And Dollar

Powell, What Makes A Good Endorsement?

An endorsement is similar to an advertisement.  The endorser would want to make a difference.  What is the difference to an election? Win or lose.  You can win by 1 vote (W) or by a landside.  They all give you the presidency.  An endorsement that takes a black horse to the main field is a good endorsement.  An endorsement that pushes the last block of voters to tip the scale is a good endorsement.  Anything after it is tipped over is an accessory.  Measuring the impact of an endorsement is to measure the size of votes it affects.  For that reason, you and I probably can save the time, in terms of endorsements.  

 

Analysts give their opinions about what Powell’s endorsement means.  An endorsement can mean a lot of things.  “What is the meaning” is a fun question to ask by media.  It is an interesting content.  It is not an important question to ask.  The good question to ask is: is this endorsement consequential?  is this endorsement relevant?

 

Is Powell’s endorsement a good endorsement?  Did Powell push Obama to the main field to compete against Hilary Clinton?  Oprah did that.  If the race is already tipped over, then this endorsement is an accessory.  Therefore, the impact of Powell’s endorsement is very questionable.  Powell may end up merely making a public statement about his differences with Republicans rather than making an impact to the race, or grabbing a 3 second media attention for no self gratification (I do not believe Powell has that self gratification need), or showing his political misjudgement or miscalculation (not knowing that the race may already be over).  Powell’s endorsement may end up being no more powerful than John Edwards (Edwards endorsed after it was crystal clear that Hilary Clinton was going to lose).

 

Powell may not have had polling results to inform him the value (votes) of his endorsement.  Therefore, he is unable to draw a dividend out of this endorsement effectively.  

 

The only thing that can make such an endorsement into an incentive is to secure a political appointment in the back room.  However, Powell does not need that, even if Powell were to cleanse his past actions.  

 

Is Powell making this endorsement to reach a resolution for himself before the world (repentance is between Powell and God.  No one else can have that privilege to know)?  What is to gain by exposing Powell’s own differences with Republicans?  

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October 20, 2008 - Posted by | Barack Obama, Current Events, 美國, Democrats, election, Election 2008, Electioneering, John McCain, mccain, obama, Palin, politics, Republican, Sarah Palin, wordpress-political-blogs

2 Comments »

  1. Got to hit you with my standard reply to all posts re: the endorsement. Look at Americas Promise Alliance. He fits well with a big government Democrat.
    I must say though that your analysis is somewhat refreshing to what other bloggers are trotting out on the subject.

    Comment by in2thefray | October 20, 2008 | Reply

  2. suppose powell has been a democrat all along: a closet democrat.

    then why was he a republican? for his military career?

    and the switch now is his true color? if he were to come out of the closet, then he is doing it for himself, not for gain. and that would seem to be consistent with the thesis of the post: this endorsement is not about being effective to serve the purpose of getting obama in. this endorsement is about himself.

    if he were a true republican with some differences (only borgs have no differences), he is still doing for himself with no political gain.

    in fact, now that you pointed out his non profit work, i wonder what effect this endorsement has on this non profit work. positive? negative? altruistic or not?

    Comment by royho | October 20, 2008 | Reply


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