Power And Dollar

What Makes President Obama Not A Sure Thing

Are these undecided voters the key to this election?

As of today (2008.11.03), Obama has 228 electoral votes where the state has >10% polling margin and 50 electoral votes where the state has >5% polling margin.  The difference less than 5% (either way) is 128 electoral votes.

Given the Bradley Effect, and the potential of undecided voters going for McCain, Obama may still get defeated.  What are in play for this result?

1) Bradley Effect – voters misinform pollsters

2) Undecided voters for McCain – not willing to misinform, nor to be McCain voter out right

3) Polling methodology – too many people are not using land lines – greater and greater difficulty in forming a good sample to represent the population

4) First time voters – first time voters have lower voting participation rates; less responsive to GOTV.  Given the huge ratio of first time voters this year, this factor is more important than before;

5) Voting machine – no more funny ballots.  And are the votes auditable?

6) Voter suppression – prevent voters who fit your opponent’s voter profile to vote.  Depriving sufficient resources or space to a few specific precinct or county maybe good enough, especially when coordinated with GOTV at other places.

7) Voting irregularities – fraudulent voter registrations, fraudulent voters.  This list is not short.

These are all technical, minute issues.  However, there are quite a few of factors for anyone to play with now, right?  Any one of these can deliver us a dramatic event (or even traumatic) fit for Hollywood. 

Typically, only the last 2 factors are in play.  This time, we got seven factors!! Five of them have never been seen before.  Too many unknowns.  And there is no time to have an academic debate to discover the truth.  So, there can only be offense for Obama since no number is completely good this time around.

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November 3, 2008 - Posted by | Current Events, 美國, Democrats, election, Election 2008, Electioneering, mccain, obama, politics, Republican, wordpress-political-blogs

2 Comments »

  1. Obama is Love!

    Comment by Irena | November 3, 2008 | Reply

  2. Obama is a poor choice for president! Of course, that’s only if you have a brain to realize he lacks experience, leadership ability, and only wants to make our problems WORSE!

    Comment by Jennifer | November 3, 2008 | Reply


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