Power And Dollar

Bradley Effect Or McCain Effect?

Is Bradley Effect still there?  How can we find out?  If we check the last polls before the election, Obama was having double digit leads.  However, his popular vote is 53% against 47%, 6% lead. 

 

Here is a list of polls I gathered:

 

Polling Company Start Date  End Date     Obama    McCain        Total           Diff
Reuters/Zogby 1-Nov 3-Nov 54 43 97 11
Gallup National Polls 31-Oct 2-Nov 55 44 99 11
Fox News National Polls 1-Nov 2-Nov 50 43 93 7
CNN National Polls 30-Oct 1-Nov 53 46 99 7
Ipsos National Polls 1-Nov 1-Nov 50 42 92 8
ABC News National Polls 30-Oct 30-Oct 54 41 95 13
CBS News National Polls 30-Oct 30-Oct 54 41 95 13
Average 52.86 42.86 96 10

 

CNN previously quoted polling experts  that the Bradley Effect is worth about 6%.  

 

Average of these last minute poll is about 10%.  The actual margin is now 6%.  Is the Bradley Effect 4%?

 

Bradley Effect is a voter claims to support an African American candidate and then votes differently.  Did voters really change their minds this way?

 

The average of the polls for Obama is 53%.  He gets 53% (52.86%).  For this, the voters are consistent.  However, the interesting part is this: the margin shrunk.  What happened?  All the “Other” category voters’ changed their minds.  The Undecided voted for McCain.  The Greens and Libertarians voted for McCain.  So, instead of claiming for Obama and voting against Obama, they claimed something else and voted for the strongest candidate against Obama.  

 

McCain gets 43% in the polls (average is the same as median and mode).  However, the popular vote is 47%.  So, if you are not an African America candidate and running against an African American candidate, you can count on getting extra votes on the election day, 4% of popular vote.  

In the case of McCain, it is for every 100 votes committed to a pollster, he gets 9 extra votes.  

 

For an African American candidate, he has to live by “You get what you see”.  He probably cannot expect a measurable vote coming out from the Undecided category in the last days.  This would be consistent with Obama’s strong push in the last few days of the campaign.  

 

Can we now replace the Bradley Effect with this statement now: “if you are running against an African American candidate and you are not an African America candidate, you can count on getting extra votes coming from other third party candidates or previously uncommitted voters on the election day”. 

 

If we can get more empirical results, then it is obvious that Democrats will have even more incentives to suffocate other third parties in the future.  This is not about Nader anymore. 

 

Instead of Bradley Effect, are we now moving into the era of McCain Effectt. 

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November 6, 2008 - Posted by | Current Events, 美國, Democrats, election, Election 2008, Electioneering, mccain, obama, politics, Republican, wordpress-political-blogs

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