Power And Dollar

Mumbai Attack: Who Got The Worst Out Of It?





Reliability of prisoners’ information is always a question.  Al Qaeda may have planted information to operatives in case of capture, check Art of War (13:23).  Motive can help assess information.  Who are the attackers really trying to hurt?  Why did they attack Mumbai and in such a manner? 


The whole attack involves a lot of valuable targets, including some of the intended valuable individuals.  The most important point was to make the attack to a very high profile one.  Why?  A high profile attack brings a high level response.  This attack has a lot fewer casualties than many other attacks, such as 2006.07’s Mumbai train station explosions.  And it is not attacking the parliament like before.  Yet it is involving a primer ministerial strategic response.  What are they after?


The point of attacking foreigners is to make it into the headlines of international media.  Drawing it out for several days, instead of a suicide bomber, is to occupy media space.  Mumbai’s capital market is not fully integrated into the world market.  Therefore, a political risk event in a country has no strategic resources to America, no significant financial impact to America, has to have more drama to keep the news hot enough and long enough to make a response worthy at the prime minister level. 


The attack is aiming to sour the peace progress between India and Pakistan.  India may assert not only diplomatic pressure but also military pressure to Pakistan.  Moving some army to the border could be enough of a headache to Pakistan.  Since Pakistan does not have as much strategic depth, Pakistan will have to withdraw some resources from the hunt for Bin Laden.  The direct beneficiary is Al Qaeda.  However, diplomatically, India is also a beneficiary. 


Pakistan’s pro US stand is a constant hot potato in Pakistan.  Pakistani presidents cannot be seen as weak before India.  This cooperation or non cooperation with India is a double edge sword.  Cooperation weakens the president domestically.  Non cooperation weakens the president internationally.  In either event, less political energy can be used to focus on Al Qaeda.



December 4, 2008 - Posted by | Current Events

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