Power And Dollar

Where Is The News About Tibet-China Talk?

Dalai Lama representatives are meeting with Chinese counterparts.  This article serves as supplementary information for all those who care about this issue.

 

Location is Shenzhen.  This is good news.  Shenzhen is next to Hong Kong, far away from Beijing.  Meetings held in Shenzhen usually result in a more liberal atmosphere because the Chinese counterparts will receive less interference from ideologues.  

 

Chinese counterparts are the head and deputy of United Front Works Department.  The head (Zhu Weiqun) is from Sichuan department.  The deputy is Sita, a Tibetan.  This indicates Communist Party has placed Tibet as the top priority of domestic politics.  This is a good sign, at least it means Tibet gets the attention it requires, rather shuffled to the bottom of the deck.  

 

Zhu is from Sichuan, an area not in Tibet but has a sizable amount of Tibetan in its jurisdiction.  Enforcements of various rules tend to be more uniform and rigid in Tibet since everyone gets to be applied for the same rules, thus making officers from Tibet less negotiable.  Officers from neightbouring provinces where they have a sizable Tibetan resident make the officers more flexible and keener to listen to different ideas.  Sichuan is especially so since they also have other minorities in the rural areas of that province. 

 

Sita (born 1953) will continue to rise in China’s hierarchy.  And he will become more and more critical to whatever effort China will have to achieve a more diverse society.  Even an inconsequential talk will not stop his rise.  Sita is a Tibetan.  His lack of last name indicates his ancestors are of Tibetan serf.  He represents what or how common Tibetan has benefited from China: free from serfdom.  He is probably one who did not only get benefited from education, only became available after the 50’s, but also see that education is important to free Tibet from serfdom days that they were prior 1950’s.  Sita has also served Foreign Ministry, stationed in Switzerland.  He has been primed to deal with everything related to Tibet.  Sita may be sympathetic to all Tibetans in terms of human rights.  Given the family’s suffering from serfdom, Sita probably sees the institution of monastery representing serfdom.  

 

Both sides of negotiators are of the same age group.  However, what Tibet was like is too far and remote to them.  There is no doubt China will have more youthful negotiators in the future.  What about the Tibetan side?  There is no younger aide at the side.  Where is their succession planning for the next round?  The Tibetan side is composed of 2 Dalai Lama loyalists.  However, Dalai Lama’s influence among overseas Tibetan is fading.  This generation gap will not make the movement coherent and sustainable.  Why isn’t the new generation of leaders being involved?  Is this difference purely ideological or an indication of power struggle?

 

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May 5, 2008 Posted by | advocacy, Current Events, environment, 西藏, opinion, politics, Thoughts, Tibet, wordpress-political-blogs, 中國 | | Leave a comment

The common interests of Microsoft, Pharmaceuticals and Rumsfeld

Forbes published a few articles related to patent laws that are English friendly in the last 10 weeks.  The patent universe is likely to change very soon.  And Rumsfeld probably would not like this idea. 

 

The legislature has been considering patent laws reforms for the past few years.  The pressure of this reform comes from major corporations, which hold a lot of patents, have been getting sued by patent trolls, or patent speculators, for royalty fees.  Additional royalty fees of course cuts into the profit margin.  However, intellectual property suits are costly to fight simply they are so difficult to understand (and thus higher legal fees).  

 

For some industries, intellectual property (IP) lawsuits affect the legal fees and royalty fees.  However, for some industries, these lawsuits affect their capitalization the suit hits the news.  These are the IP-centric industries, such as IT and medical industries.  

 

When RIM, the maker of blackberry, got sued for patent infringement, its stock price dropped to its knees.  After all, RIM has nothing but blackberry.  And even if RIM’s patent is not void, a heavy royalty fees will seriously affect its profit.  

 

A key element of the reform is revolved around unique concept of American patent system: first to invent versus first to file.  The congress will remove the first to invent rule and make US to be in sync with the rest of world: first to file.  In the first to file rule, one needs not be an inventor, but just to be the first to walk into the patent office to own all rights of the invention.  

 

The first one to be disadvantaged is obviously the legal industry.  However, not many people will feel sorry for that.  And we will skip.

 

A loss to one may be a gain to another.  Here are some of those:

 

The second to be affected (not necessarily disadvantaged) are the medical and IT industries.  A lot of drug patents are expiring, just like the copy rights of a lot of Disney characters.  For these US giant pharmaceuticals to stay afloat, they need new patents.  They either have to invent or find other people’s invention to file before the inventor does.  So, the firms that are better industrial espionage will do better.  

 

Some items are affecting directly the rights of the inventor: 1) Damages will be restricted as well, a classic republican cause; 2) Challenges will be for the entire life span of the patent rather than a probation period; 3) Disclosure of invention will be required prior to granting the patent. 

 

Who gets the benefit out of this?  Infringers.  Infringers will be able to have a cap on the compensation to the patent owners, able to challenge the patent until the patent runs out (yes, they can), able to learn the invention before it is patented and therefore free from paying royalties fees, and no injections from the inventor to stop the infringements. 

 

Alright, how does it relate to Rumsfeld? 

 

As a defense hawk, Rumesfeld is interested at slowing the China’s economic growth.  Making it cheaper for patent violation is a big favour for the medium enterprises in China.  Inventors lobby groups probably would want to get more funding from pharmaceuticals and hire Rumsfeld to be the lobbyist for a cause that its core constituents probably does not have the funding nor the votes for.

May 2, 2008 Posted by | business, China, Current Events, economics, Investment, law, legislation, Money, politics, Regulation, wordpress-political-blogs, 中國 | Leave a comment

印度洋的暗湧—–辛巴威、肯亞、中聯石化及印度

 original (2008.04.10, 2008.04.11)

 

 

 

中非洲國家辛巴威(ZIMBABWE)的選舉已經結束,但迄今仍未公佈結果,個中原因大家當然心中有數,鄰國贊比亞(ZAMBIA)為此舉辦高峰會,辛國總統穆加比將不會參加,但反對黨的黨魁卻出席是次會議,這將會是反對黨一次宣傳他們的政治抱負、向鄰邦宣示友好、尋求支持的大好機會。

辛巴威與贊比亞毗鄰而居,共同擁有一條漫長的邊界,他們的政治安定是唇齒相依的,如果辛國的政治不穩,贊國將會有大批難民壓境,這不光影響贊國的政治,更嚴重是影響贊國的經濟,更有甚者影響世界的資源供應。 

事緣位於非洲內陸的贊比亞是產銅國,名列全球第十位。這個被鄰國包圍的贊比亞,不論那一邊邊界的鄰國有戰亂那麼嚴重,即使有點兒風吹草動,贊國不能維持正常的生產量,銅價焉能不波動。再者贊國位於內陸,由於沒有出口港,它的銅須經肯亞(KENYA)出口,長路漫漫,交通稍有延誤,國際銅價會怎樣,自然不言而喻。幸好肯亞有良好的基礎建設、深水不涷港、政治經濟穩定,一向是東非和中非的貨物集散地、東非的金融中心,可是這個除南非以外的非洲桃源同樣面對政治危機。因此贊比亞政府真是寢食難安。

 

由肯亞往東南走,便是非洲第一大島,馬達加斯加(MADAGASCAR),石油蘊藏量為二十億桶,二零零七年九月中聯石油化工國際有限公司 (簡稱「中聯石化」,股份代號:0346)取得與馬國合作開採油田工程合約、興建250個加油站,以及擁有石油產品批發、零售的專營權。

這個合約對中、馬而言都是一大喜訊。中國是貧油國,為了找尋油源而苦惱,中國不但戰略儲備油不足,最近連日用油也告急。向海外收購石油公司,也受西方國家處處掣肘,現在能與馬達加斯加合作,是用油的一大突破。至於馬達加斯加,它的油田停產了六十年,如今有中國的資金與技術,對馬島的經濟當然有裨益。

 

看見中國在印度洋西岸機遇處處,引起印度的不安。印度在資源方面雖不及中國的緊絀,但印度一向為南亞的第一大國,西起非洲東岸、東至大小摩洛哥群島印度裔人口最多,雖然沒有在印度洋建立殖民地,但卻以印度洋為其禁臠,如今中國涉足於此,頗叫印度坐立不安。中國現在擁有十三億人口,核子武器,更何況印度的近鄰:東北的孟加拉、西藏;東鄰的緬甸,西接的巴基斯坦與中國都有或深或淺的友誼,印度如何是好呢﹗稍後,印度有需要和中國共商印度洋的安全事務,希望兩國均能各安並事。但如此一來,將會做成中國大陸找尋資源的「不便」。

大陸的石油公司出國收購西方的石油公司時屢屢遭遇挫折,外交上又經常碰壁,大陸的石油公司有須要學會降低政治風險,而此中佼佼者不是甚麼高人、教主,而是匯豐銀行。

 

當年,匯豐銀行為了減低因「九七」問題所衍生出來的政治風險,雖然以第一時間遷冊加勒比海,但遷冊不能提供足夠的政治保障,匯豐才又分別在倫敦、紐約掛牌,目的是要吸納更多的英美投資者。這些英、美籍的投資者會利用不同的渠道、正式或非正式的途徑遊說政府保護他們的既得利益,匯豐看準中國大陸是一個「錢」途無限的新興市場,但又怕五十年代的歷史重演,所以把匯豐的利益與英美投資者的利益結合,融為一體,做到你中有我、我中有你,敵我不能再分時,抗拒意識便會淡化,這是另一種的和親政策。

 

  大陸在贊比亞有許多銅礦,倘若印度現在插手肯亞及辛巴威的事務,無異是向中國施壓,目下印度已來不及了,也犯不著在現階段挑釁大陸,但隨著中國在非洲的影響力日增,印度插手這類資源供應國事務的動機和誘因只會愈來愈大,中印的齟齬將會不絕於耳。

 

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original:

https://royho.wordpress.com/2008/04/11/madagascar-oil-has-gone-chinese/

https://royho.wordpress.com/2008/04/10/kenya-zimbabwe-and-your/

May 1, 2008 Posted by | 石油, 非洲, 印度, 国事, 天下事, 中國 | Leave a comment

Dalai Lama Meeting China? What Can They Accomplish?

China wants to meet Dalai Lama’s representatives.  Why is it announcement now?  What can this meeting accomplish? 

 

Beijing made the announcement today because EU trade delegation arrived Beijing.  Currency exchange rate is a big topic, trade barrier is of course another.  Some of it is very logistics, such as business visa issuance.  In any event, having a nice announcement today can delay and defuse some tensions.


CNN reports the story here.  Similar to other media outlets, CNN has already put sandbags on this meeting: don’t expect much because this meeting could be a PR ploy to defuse all the possible upcoming Tibetan activists may stage.  And even if Dalai Lama is fully convinced that this meeting is unproductive, Dalai Lama will still send his representatives to meet China.

 

Why will Dalai Lama still want to meet China for an unproductive meeting?

 

If he does not, he will be blamed as spoiler.  However, China probably wants this meet bad enough that they must have relaxed the conditions of meeting.  After all, Dalai Lama already said both sides have been in contact since early April.  So they are already in talks for weeks to set up a talk.  The announcement from the Beijing is an indication that at least Dalai Lama is comfortable with the agenda, even if that agenda may have unproductive outcome.  

 

There are a few things we can observe.  If we see a series of talks stretching out, then please do not celebrate that as an indication of progress.  That only means to stall the protests word wide and divert political pressure of the foreign governments from their domestic constituency asking for do-something. 

 

The place is likely to be within Mainland China, to symbolize that it is an internal affairs.  If it were in a third party, China would be afraid that the meeting has evolved into a nation-to-nation meeting.  However, the question remains: where will it take place, in China?  The location would be an indication how serious Beijing takes this meeting.  

 

Will this be a publicized or secretive meeting?  The press of course would not get invited during the talk.  But will there be photo op announced to the press in advance? Will there be joint announcement?  If there will be joint announcement, then this will be a meeting of substance.  

 

 

Even if Beijing is not intent to just stage another stall tactics and meant well to accomplish something, it is still practically difficult.  Positions of both sides are clear since they already spent a few decades to sort out the differences.  Beijing hates to be seen as to giving concessions to separatists.  Beijing waited for 8 years for President Chen of Taiwan to retire from office and waited a few decades on the issue of Dalai Lama.  Holding off another 5 or 10 years does not bear additional political costs, both domestically and internationally.  

 

Beijing simply is stretched at this moment to have a serious talk.  All resources are diverted to Olympics.  And Beijing sees that it is much easier to accomplish something from the Taiwan problem.  Therefore, for whatever remaining energy and resources from the top leadership will be dedicated to Taiwan.  For Dalai Lama, the meeting has to be measured against the level of civil servants Taiwan enjoys.  

 

April 25, 2008 Posted by | advocacy, China, Current Events, environment, 西藏, opinion, politics, Thoughts, Tibet, wordpress-political-blogs, 中國 | | 10 Comments

Did Dalai Lama Just Engineered His Own Endgame?

Richard Gere (CNN reports Richard Gere in Protests here) is now catching on with this media ride too!  This Olympics is giving an edge to the Tibetan causes they probably have never enjoyed in the last 6 decades.  If the cards are played well, not only will the Tibetan causes be brought to the next level, but also will serve as a great transition of Tibetan leadership.  Of course, fighting against a resourceful state institution (like China, USA, Russia, etc) is difficult to win, even when the cards are played well.  Nevertheless, Dalai Lama leveraged this moment for an important political asset: Karmapa Lama. 

 

Karmapa Lama, age 22 and the third most important figure in the Tibetan Buddhism, is expected to visit the States in mid May 2008.  India has given permission for the trip.  However, pressure from China may derail it.  If this trip is a go, then this is a good training opportunity for Karmapa Lama to become an interim leader before the next Dalai Lama assumes his rightful place.  

 

If Karmapa Lama performs well in this trip, then Dalai Lama probably has engineered a good endgame for himself: using this Olympics and his probably last influence inside Tibet to maximize the media attention from the riot to the protest to introduce the next leader to the world.  

April 9, 2008 Posted by | China, china politics, Current Events, 西藏, opinion, politics, Thoughts, Tibet, wordpress-political-blogs, 中國 | 12 Comments

What Is Beijing’s Next Move On Tibet?

The protesters have caught up the Olympics torch and getting more media exposure than Beijing would hope for.  What is Beijing doing? Do they want to take some initiative back? What is their Tibet plan? 

No government would intentionally turn its land into another Gaza.  Every story has its ending.  Does China know how it wants this story to end? 

China is known to make decision based on long time-horizon.  Since a US president has 4 years in a term and at 8 years at most, US presidents expect returns of their political actions in a much shorter time frame.  Just consider Bush 2: Bush is still thinking of Israel and Palestine although he has 10 months left.  EU has a longer time perspective becasue they have a larger public servant work force, fewer political appointments and therefore career beaucrats can afford to wait for the comings and goings of politicians.  China is known to make decisions that can bear fruits a few decades from their decision points.  So, does China have a grand game-plan for Tibet?

No country plans to split a part of its land to become an independent country, unless it realizes it can no longer keep the land in question.  China is no different.  China is just waiting. 

China is waiting for Dalai Lama to recarnate so that the younger generation of Tibetans will get themselves marginalized.  The youthful Tibetans, the generation of Tibetans born in India, will either 1) get assimulated into India and its Tibetan identity gets disintegrated slowly or 2) become marginalized and ridiculed by the main stream society of India as a liability over time. 

The Tibetan political movement (even gets a state sponsor, and guess who) can only become more radical, once Dalai Lama recarnate, in order to strengthen its bargaining power against Beijing.  And this is when Beijing can convenient label this movement as a terrorist group. 

After all, all the Tibetan causes are united by a Dalai Lama.  An absence of Dalai Lama for 15, 20 years will disintegrate all these causes into different directions.  And no single force can unite them again.  What will remain true to itself is the religious movement.  However, when the language and all the cultural elements reside in China, the interpretation of fundementals of Tibetan Bhuddism rests in the hands of China. 

With the forseeable future of a splitered groups among the Tibetan causes, a more militant Tibetan group destined to be marginalized with or without other state sponsors, a weakening Dalai Lama due to age, China decides to wait for a decade or more to wear out all these movements. 

Here is the update from CNN just now and Associated Press at 0918 EST:

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/US/04/08/olympic.torch.ap/index.html#cnnSTCText

April 8, 2008 Posted by | China, china politics, Current Events, 西藏, Tibet, wordpress-political-blogs, 中國 | | 2 Comments

Treasury to “Talk” about Tibet in China or $$?

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is visiting China.   It is said that he will bring the issue of Tibet to China.  Among other items for discussion are: Chinese tariffs on environmental technology, restriction on financial markets open to foreign competition, the free currency exchange rate of Chinese yuan.  Forbes has a summary:

http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2008/04/02/afx4843254.html

A visit by Treasury is of course arranged way in advance.  So, Tibet is not what prompted the visit.  Neither would Tibet become the main focus at the last minute for a Treasury Secretary.  So, the Tibet talk is for domestic consumption.  Is the appreciation of yuan the point, now that Paulson is actually in China? 

Yuan has already appreciated 4% this year, i.e. 4% in 3 months.  That is quite a bit of appreciation in such a short period of time.  That topic cannot last long.  So, any accomplishment out of this trip would not be in this topic.  And someone like Paulson who has decades of experience in international banking knew that.   

So, what does he want to accomplish here? 

He will put some effort into the environmental technology issue.  However, he is not an expert.  If he has a delegation to go with him, then he will be able to facilitate a lot business card exchanges among the right people.  The irony here is US isn’t really a great leader in this field.  The strength is probably in the capital intensive side of this business, such as wide farms.   

Wang Qishan, the Vice Premier of China managing trades, is the counter part of Paulson.  They met when Paulson, while at Goldman Sachs, helped China restructure one of the big banks.  Therefore, they will be able to spend the most time on opening financial markets to foreign competition.  US’ interests will be on having foreign insurance, investment and banking companies to operate in China while China will say they are not ready yet.  An achievement should not be expected since this ought to be a long term negotiation.  Besides, China is waiting for a new President to deal.  They can also spend some time in the difficulty of conducting M&A in China.  However, if Paulson brings up that issue, then the conversation will easily be dragged into the difficulty of having M&A done in the states by Chinese firms.   

The importance for the US is this is the first trip since the new leadership in February.  So, this is a relationship building trip.  A lot of career bureaucrats of both sides need to find out who their counter parts are.  US’ new Trade counter part will give US less confrontation.  However, by no means negotiations will be easier.  This is a difference in style, not in substance.  Paulson will also gain a lot from this trip.  His Goldman Sachs resume put him to DC.  He paid back to his core constituency by the recent overhaul to make the industry more competitive in the global market place.  Now, his position of power opened even more doors to his post Treasury Secretary career.    

At least someone got something useful of Bush Administration.

April 3, 2008 Posted by | business, China, Current Events, 西藏, market, Money, opinion, politics, stock, Thoughts, Tibet, trading, wordpress-political-blogs, 中國 | Leave a comment

Taiwan’s Bank buys Mainland China’s

Fubon has been approved to buy approximately 20% of Xiamen City Commercial Bank at a price of US$34 M.  The biggest shareholder of Xiamen City Commercial Bank is the Xiamen City government’s Commerce Bureau, approximately 24%.  Fubon is traded in international exchanges.  Fubon is expected to name members to the board.

Xiamen City Commercial Bank is a local bank.  Xiamen (Amoy) has the heavies concentration of Taiwan businesses.  This local bank is not a troubled bank.  The significance is not who bought whom, but the approval by Taiwan’s authorities.  This will be considered a plus for Fubon. 

Taiwan’s government bureaucrats are quick to recognize the president elect Ma and quickly steering to approvals that would be considered as consistent with his platform.  There probably will be other approvals before May that are considered favourable to businesses/industries building ties to Mainland China. 

April 3, 2008 Posted by | banking, business, China, Current Events, economics, finance, market, Money, stock, Taiwan, trading, wordpress-political-blogs, 台灣, 中國 | Leave a comment

Meeting Dalai Lama = Rooting Out Violence

Many compare the Tibetan riot to the protests in 1989.  The protest back then did not involve riot.  This riot involved organization: targeted location, date; weapons were transported and were unavailable in the city.  Violence has also spurred to the Hui people, in addition to Han.  This is also a new turn of history.  Clean up is finally there for the Hui quarter.  When will Mainland China start to clean up this Tibet question?

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/04/01/china.tibet/index.html

Dalai Lama is over 70 years old.  His influence is determined to wear out.  New generation of Tibetans demand more power from the Tibetan elites in exiles.  What is to gain for Mainland China from meeting Dalai Lama? 

Dalai Lama continues to be the spiritual leader of all Tibetan causes, be it independence, cultural preservation, environmentalism, human rights, etc.  Meeting with him will turn Mainland China from being defensive to a proactive stand.  

The younger generation of Tibetans is getting frustrated with Dalai Lama’s approach to their goal.  The riot is a good example.  This generation of activists does not have the baggage of Tibetan Bhuddism, they are willing and able to carry out indigenously organized violence.  It will only be a matter of time for these activists to be funded by other state institutions.  When that occurs, Tibet will be the Palestine in the East.  

Tibetan cause may still not succeed.  However, how much resources will be drained out to restrain Tibet?  The goal of Mainland is to keep Tibet.  Why wouldn’t Mainland China want to keep Tibet in the most cost effective manner?  At least a more cost effective manner than fighting out an endless battle in the future Palestine in the East?  That more cost effective manner is to prevent a peaceful Tibet to become a costly Palestine in the East.  

Meet Dalai since he does not seek independence anyway.  Take the Tibetan anti-government violence off the television not for a day, but for years to come.  Turn it into screens of hand shakes.  Dalai is old and wants to return home.  Remove the unifying figure of all Tibetan causes.  That will make these different organizations lose their focus.  Out of sight, out of mind.  

They different organizations will become a lot more manageable, be it the battle for TV coverage or outside of TV coverage.  It is always difficult for organizations to win against state institutions.  

Mainland China may think time is on their side in the international political arena.  And time is not in favour of Dalai Lama.  Every one and everything has its time.  Time will run out on Dalai Lama.  And when that happens, that option will forever be shut, for there probably be two Dalai Lama next time around and Mainland China cannot control them all.  

March 28, 2008 Posted by | China, china politics, chinese, Current Affairs, Current Events, 西藏, opinion, politics, Thoughts, Tibet, wordpress-political-blogs, 中國 | | Leave a comment

Some Progress on Taiwan Strait

It seems like a match can finally begin.  Hu may not be able concentrate on too many items.  He is more inclined to deal with a positive opening (Taiwan) than a hot spot for now (Tibet).Important press releases by both US and China, below.  Read the question started by the keyword “Olympics”.  And follow all the subsequent questions by the keyword “China”.  http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20080327005800&newsLang=en

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-03/27/content_7865209.htm

March 27, 2008 Posted by | america politics, China, china politics, chinese, Current Affairs, Current Events, opinion, politics, Taiwan, Thoughts, US politics, wordpress-political-blogs, 台灣, 中國 | Leave a comment