Power And Dollar

What Does North Korea’s Six-Party Talk Matter?

North Korea is the next news item after G8.  Six-party talk starts on 07.10.  This is expected to be a minister level meeting.  Therefore, some big items are to be discussed.  Bush needs to accomplish something more than Iraq and Afganistan.  North Korea also wants to cash out something out of a desperate President and then start the next round of talks.  Some results will come out before11.04.  Some real progress can be made in the next Six-Party talk.  What does it matter? 

 

This will produce a lot of long term effect.  Short terms are logistics and symbolic, such as an agreement, declaration of some sort (peace), exchanging offices, etc.

 

A minister level meeting is an indication that a conclusion is in sight.  This is not just about sanctions, economic aid or light water reactor.  They are, literally small potatoes, for a minister level meeting.  Will the end of Korean War finally be an agenda item?  Finalizing the border between North and South Koreas? 

 

If these questions are on the table, then the outcome will give us a sketch of what the unification process for North and South Koreas will be.  If the meeting will not reach to that point, then it would be interesting to see what derails since Japan has no clout in Six-Party talk; South Korea has no position against North Korea; China is generally believed to want a nuclear free Korea peninsula. 

 

Of course, if all goes well, South Korea can finally convince itself that peace is here.  Fiscal spending can decrease.  The ripple effect will be: what about the military bases?  If they will stay, who pays?  The same question can be asked about the bases in Japan.  What will China’s position be in the middle of all this?

 

What about the border that defines South Korea and Japan?  If there will be mutual recognition of the two Koreas, they need to agree to each other’s boundary.  What will North Korea’s position on the border dispute between Japan and South Korea?  Will North Korea even drag the WW2 war crime into the agenda too?  How far will and can North Korea stretch Japan?  What is the price to pay to get the Japanese abductees back to Japan?

 

Or, will the talk turn first to the commercial projects?  Does Russia want more investors at the eastern end of Siberia?  How is that Siberia oil pipeline going?  Will this be a pre-text for some Northeast Asia security mechanism or trust building exercise?  Will this bring up the border dispute between Russia and Japan? 

 

Any kind of Northeast Asia security mechanism leads to re-balancing the response time of US military.  How will Japan react to that?  Since these border disputes are created by the final days of WW2, will the end of Six – Party talk pull out a long overdue clean-up talk?  That is something Japan wants to avoid badly.

 

 

If Okinawan independence movement is an institutionalized movement, then this is the time to plot their moves.  The end of Six – Party inevitably leads to Taiwan Strait, another WW2 antique problem. 

 

If so, a behind the scene negotiation between China and America is the real determinant.  In that context, North Korea is really the pivot of a lot of things.

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July 10, 2008 Posted by | Current Events, Japan, korea, opinion, politics, wordpress-political-blogs, 台灣, 国事, 天下事, 中國 | 2 Comments

印度洋的暗湧—–辛巴威、肯亞、中聯石化及印度

 original (2008.04.10, 2008.04.11)

 

 

 

中非洲國家辛巴威(ZIMBABWE)的選舉已經結束,但迄今仍未公佈結果,個中原因大家當然心中有數,鄰國贊比亞(ZAMBIA)為此舉辦高峰會,辛國總統穆加比將不會參加,但反對黨的黨魁卻出席是次會議,這將會是反對黨一次宣傳他們的政治抱負、向鄰邦宣示友好、尋求支持的大好機會。

辛巴威與贊比亞毗鄰而居,共同擁有一條漫長的邊界,他們的政治安定是唇齒相依的,如果辛國的政治不穩,贊國將會有大批難民壓境,這不光影響贊國的政治,更嚴重是影響贊國的經濟,更有甚者影響世界的資源供應。 

事緣位於非洲內陸的贊比亞是產銅國,名列全球第十位。這個被鄰國包圍的贊比亞,不論那一邊邊界的鄰國有戰亂那麼嚴重,即使有點兒風吹草動,贊國不能維持正常的生產量,銅價焉能不波動。再者贊國位於內陸,由於沒有出口港,它的銅須經肯亞(KENYA)出口,長路漫漫,交通稍有延誤,國際銅價會怎樣,自然不言而喻。幸好肯亞有良好的基礎建設、深水不涷港、政治經濟穩定,一向是東非和中非的貨物集散地、東非的金融中心,可是這個除南非以外的非洲桃源同樣面對政治危機。因此贊比亞政府真是寢食難安。

 

由肯亞往東南走,便是非洲第一大島,馬達加斯加(MADAGASCAR),石油蘊藏量為二十億桶,二零零七年九月中聯石油化工國際有限公司 (簡稱「中聯石化」,股份代號:0346)取得與馬國合作開採油田工程合約、興建250個加油站,以及擁有石油產品批發、零售的專營權。

這個合約對中、馬而言都是一大喜訊。中國是貧油國,為了找尋油源而苦惱,中國不但戰略儲備油不足,最近連日用油也告急。向海外收購石油公司,也受西方國家處處掣肘,現在能與馬達加斯加合作,是用油的一大突破。至於馬達加斯加,它的油田停產了六十年,如今有中國的資金與技術,對馬島的經濟當然有裨益。

 

看見中國在印度洋西岸機遇處處,引起印度的不安。印度在資源方面雖不及中國的緊絀,但印度一向為南亞的第一大國,西起非洲東岸、東至大小摩洛哥群島印度裔人口最多,雖然沒有在印度洋建立殖民地,但卻以印度洋為其禁臠,如今中國涉足於此,頗叫印度坐立不安。中國現在擁有十三億人口,核子武器,更何況印度的近鄰:東北的孟加拉、西藏;東鄰的緬甸,西接的巴基斯坦與中國都有或深或淺的友誼,印度如何是好呢﹗稍後,印度有需要和中國共商印度洋的安全事務,希望兩國均能各安並事。但如此一來,將會做成中國大陸找尋資源的「不便」。

大陸的石油公司出國收購西方的石油公司時屢屢遭遇挫折,外交上又經常碰壁,大陸的石油公司有須要學會降低政治風險,而此中佼佼者不是甚麼高人、教主,而是匯豐銀行。

 

當年,匯豐銀行為了減低因「九七」問題所衍生出來的政治風險,雖然以第一時間遷冊加勒比海,但遷冊不能提供足夠的政治保障,匯豐才又分別在倫敦、紐約掛牌,目的是要吸納更多的英美投資者。這些英、美籍的投資者會利用不同的渠道、正式或非正式的途徑遊說政府保護他們的既得利益,匯豐看準中國大陸是一個「錢」途無限的新興市場,但又怕五十年代的歷史重演,所以把匯豐的利益與英美投資者的利益結合,融為一體,做到你中有我、我中有你,敵我不能再分時,抗拒意識便會淡化,這是另一種的和親政策。

 

  大陸在贊比亞有許多銅礦,倘若印度現在插手肯亞及辛巴威的事務,無異是向中國施壓,目下印度已來不及了,也犯不著在現階段挑釁大陸,但隨著中國在非洲的影響力日增,印度插手這類資源供應國事務的動機和誘因只會愈來愈大,中印的齟齬將會不絕於耳。

 

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original:

https://royho.wordpress.com/2008/04/11/madagascar-oil-has-gone-chinese/

https://royho.wordpress.com/2008/04/10/kenya-zimbabwe-and-your/

May 1, 2008 Posted by | 石油, 非洲, 印度, 国事, 天下事, 中國 | Leave a comment