Power And Dollar

How Will This Work For Dafur?

The arrest of Karadzic removes the condition for Serbia to join European Union.  This arrest is another evidence an individual cannot escape the will of a state.  Karadzic has been successful to remain free for 13 years (since 1995).  What makes arresting war crime suspect so difficult?  What does this arrest say about Dafur?

 

A NATO raid back in 2005 July could not capture Karadzic.  That is because one can only evade this long if state institutions are protecting him.  Once the incentives of arresting him, i.e. European Union membership for Bosnia, out weighs the incentives of protecting him, i.e. protecting the co-founder of Serbian Democratic Party and the intellectual advocate of Serbian nationalism. 

 

Of all the war crimes, genocide has the most difficulty to try because of the definition of the crime.  Genocide is defined as “acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group”.   The difficulty lies with the word “intent”.  The wording “in part” also gives trouble to prosecutor. 

 

Karadzic will be tried by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY), i.e. not International Criminal Court.  Why is that?  Well, the United States of America never supported the idea of Internal Criminal Court.  America favors courts appointed for a specific war conflict.  In doing so, America has a better control as to the scope of the trial, the suspects the court will try, the timing of court creation, budgeting, judge appointments and so on.  What risks do these items pose to America that America would want to assert so much control rather than simply control the funding of ICC?  America is involved in a lot of military conflicts.  It is only a matter of time that someone will fall under the definition of war crime.  Having a court that is originated from one military event makes the court to have defined end.  Thus, it is far safer than having a court that serves a never ending purpose (as long as there are military conflicts, there will be potential of war crime).  Besides, once an international court gets its own budget, it becomes institutionalized and it has own life that America can never truly end.  It has been said that Kissinger does not travel overseas because he wants to avoid being served for war crime arrest from individual countries (not ICC). 

 

The prosecution of Omar al-Bashir will make the Sudan government elite more insecure.  This in turn will make the government more inflexible in any peace negotiation.  If not, then what will happen to Dafur if indeed there will be no UN presence?  How bad will it be?  Who will then be responsible elevate the pain and suffering in that area?  There will not even be a third party to monitor and document the activities in Dafur.  How will the prosecution be helpful in elevating atrocities then?  If the purpose of trial cannot be achieved by this prosecution and this prosecution will serve as an impediment to peace process, then what purpose does it serve?

 

Exactly for that reason, African Union wants a delay in this prosecution.  So are Arab League and Organization of the Islamic Conference.  Of course the latter two have other motives as well, namely Sudanese government is run by Muslims. 

 

What, then, motivates the timing of this prosecution?  China’s veto against the resolution against Zimbabwe in UN.  Britain has a strong motive for this tick for tack in another African country where China has a strong interests, i.e. oil.  Zimbabwe serves the interest of Britain since British descents control majority of farm land in Zimbabwe and they continue to enjoy the rights to become British citizens.  This prosecution sets the stage for more embarrassing public relations episodes for China during this Olympics. 

 

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July 22, 2008 Posted by | activism, advocacy, Africa, Current Events, 石油, 非洲, nonprofits, opinion, politics, wordpress-political-blogs | | Leave a comment

Zimbabwe Crisis: Is It About Democracy?

Zimbabwe crisis has been going on for months.  US is not interfering with force since Zimbabwe involves no strategic resources.  In a way, most of the African leaders are supporting Mugabe, even though an unstable Zimbabwe is not to their interests.  Whose interests are at stake?  What is this debate about?

 

The strongest voice against Zimbabwe’s Mugabe is Britain.  Why?  Since Mugabe started its land reform, Britain suffers the greatest risk in Zimbabwe.  Three quarters of the most fertile land Zimbabwe are held by British descent, who are citizens of Britain.  They control a great portion of the economy, as well as livelihood of the citizens.

 

A land reform is inevitable.  It was only a matter of time and approach to the reform.  Mugabe’s land grab was brutal.  However, most of the African nations see the reaction to Mugabe’s regime as a return to the colonial time and a refusal to wealth distribution from colonialists to Africans.   

 

That is why African Union says it is an African problem.  Even India will not boycott cricket against Zimbabwe.  China and South Africa both blocked the UN sanctions against Mugabe and his relations.  Some even considered him a hero.

 

This is not a debate about democracy promoted by the west and the corruption and dictatorships supported by third world countries like China.  This is a debate of former colonialists protecting their interests and developing countries’ elites choosing their own path to solve their problems.  

July 3, 2008 Posted by | activism, advocacy, Africa, Current Events, election, 非洲, India, opinion, politics, wordpress-political-blogs | 1 Comment

印度洋的暗湧—–辛巴威、肯亞、中聯石化及印度

 original (2008.04.10, 2008.04.11)

 

 

 

中非洲國家辛巴威(ZIMBABWE)的選舉已經結束,但迄今仍未公佈結果,個中原因大家當然心中有數,鄰國贊比亞(ZAMBIA)為此舉辦高峰會,辛國總統穆加比將不會參加,但反對黨的黨魁卻出席是次會議,這將會是反對黨一次宣傳他們的政治抱負、向鄰邦宣示友好、尋求支持的大好機會。

辛巴威與贊比亞毗鄰而居,共同擁有一條漫長的邊界,他們的政治安定是唇齒相依的,如果辛國的政治不穩,贊國將會有大批難民壓境,這不光影響贊國的政治,更嚴重是影響贊國的經濟,更有甚者影響世界的資源供應。 

事緣位於非洲內陸的贊比亞是產銅國,名列全球第十位。這個被鄰國包圍的贊比亞,不論那一邊邊界的鄰國有戰亂那麼嚴重,即使有點兒風吹草動,贊國不能維持正常的生產量,銅價焉能不波動。再者贊國位於內陸,由於沒有出口港,它的銅須經肯亞(KENYA)出口,長路漫漫,交通稍有延誤,國際銅價會怎樣,自然不言而喻。幸好肯亞有良好的基礎建設、深水不涷港、政治經濟穩定,一向是東非和中非的貨物集散地、東非的金融中心,可是這個除南非以外的非洲桃源同樣面對政治危機。因此贊比亞政府真是寢食難安。

 

由肯亞往東南走,便是非洲第一大島,馬達加斯加(MADAGASCAR),石油蘊藏量為二十億桶,二零零七年九月中聯石油化工國際有限公司 (簡稱「中聯石化」,股份代號:0346)取得與馬國合作開採油田工程合約、興建250個加油站,以及擁有石油產品批發、零售的專營權。

這個合約對中、馬而言都是一大喜訊。中國是貧油國,為了找尋油源而苦惱,中國不但戰略儲備油不足,最近連日用油也告急。向海外收購石油公司,也受西方國家處處掣肘,現在能與馬達加斯加合作,是用油的一大突破。至於馬達加斯加,它的油田停產了六十年,如今有中國的資金與技術,對馬島的經濟當然有裨益。

 

看見中國在印度洋西岸機遇處處,引起印度的不安。印度在資源方面雖不及中國的緊絀,但印度一向為南亞的第一大國,西起非洲東岸、東至大小摩洛哥群島印度裔人口最多,雖然沒有在印度洋建立殖民地,但卻以印度洋為其禁臠,如今中國涉足於此,頗叫印度坐立不安。中國現在擁有十三億人口,核子武器,更何況印度的近鄰:東北的孟加拉、西藏;東鄰的緬甸,西接的巴基斯坦與中國都有或深或淺的友誼,印度如何是好呢﹗稍後,印度有需要和中國共商印度洋的安全事務,希望兩國均能各安並事。但如此一來,將會做成中國大陸找尋資源的「不便」。

大陸的石油公司出國收購西方的石油公司時屢屢遭遇挫折,外交上又經常碰壁,大陸的石油公司有須要學會降低政治風險,而此中佼佼者不是甚麼高人、教主,而是匯豐銀行。

 

當年,匯豐銀行為了減低因「九七」問題所衍生出來的政治風險,雖然以第一時間遷冊加勒比海,但遷冊不能提供足夠的政治保障,匯豐才又分別在倫敦、紐約掛牌,目的是要吸納更多的英美投資者。這些英、美籍的投資者會利用不同的渠道、正式或非正式的途徑遊說政府保護他們的既得利益,匯豐看準中國大陸是一個「錢」途無限的新興市場,但又怕五十年代的歷史重演,所以把匯豐的利益與英美投資者的利益結合,融為一體,做到你中有我、我中有你,敵我不能再分時,抗拒意識便會淡化,這是另一種的和親政策。

 

  大陸在贊比亞有許多銅礦,倘若印度現在插手肯亞及辛巴威的事務,無異是向中國施壓,目下印度已來不及了,也犯不著在現階段挑釁大陸,但隨著中國在非洲的影響力日增,印度插手這類資源供應國事務的動機和誘因只會愈來愈大,中印的齟齬將會不絕於耳。

 

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original:

https://royho.wordpress.com/2008/04/11/madagascar-oil-has-gone-chinese/

https://royho.wordpress.com/2008/04/10/kenya-zimbabwe-and-your/

May 1, 2008 Posted by | 石油, 非洲, 印度, 国事, 天下事, 中國 | Leave a comment