Power And Dollar

Obamacare Makes Labor Market More Favorable To Small Businesses

 

Republicans champion capitalism, especially “the pursuit of happiness”.  For that, Republicans consider businessmen to be their safe constituents.  Is enabling small businesses to compete more effectively against the mega corporations something Republican look forward to?  Interestingly enough, Democrats are doing that this time instead of Republicans.  And that is through this Obamacare.

Extending health care to all is the idea of Obamacare.  Having this barrier to health care obviously gives an edge to someone.  In terms of politics (or policy), the question is always about who gets the advantage (or the disadvantage).  Prior the Obamacare days, the advantage is to the employers who can afford the administrative cost of providing a health care insurance to its employees, thus giving them an overwhelming advantage in recruiting and retaining the human resources they need.  This disadvantage suffocates small businesses and self employed.  Ultimately, innovation is sacrificed. 

Plenty of employees make employment decisions based on the health care package.  Many people give up their business dreams and stay as an employee because of the fear of not having health care for their families.  Almost everyone will be covered when Obamacare becomes effective.  Yes, the operating cost is higher for small business owners, however, this increase cost will draw the small business owners much closer to the advantage enjoyed by the mega corporations than if they acquire the health package alone.  In fact, only 38% offer health insurance to employees among the small business owners in 2009 versus 61% in 1993 (read here). 

If America’s small business owners’ talents for success are not willing to move to them and continue to stay in General Motors, ATT and like, then where is the next Google?

March 23, 2010 Posted by | activism, advocacy, america politics, Current Events, 美國, Democrats, economics, Election 2010, health care reform, nonprofits, obama, opinion, politics, Thoughts, US politics, wordpress-political-blogs | 1 Comment

Are These Obama Health Insurance Stocks’ Price Level Sustainable?

Shortly after Obama’s health care reform announcement on 2010.02.22 M, the health care industry stocks started to fall.  Even at closing, google still shows they are down.  However, health care insurance sector, such as Cigna (NYSE: CI http://www.cigna.com) and Aetna (NYSE: AET http://www.aetna.com), recovered very quickly and in factor closes better than yesterday 2010.02.19 F.  Who got the short straw in this latest round of Obamacare drama?  Why?  Didn’t Obama say job is his number one priority in the State of the Union?  Is this some kind of ideological fixation he has? 

If you need more information than CNN gives, then try this summary page.

The google health care index is down because the drug companies’, such as Merck (NYSE:MRK http://http://www.merck.com) and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ http://www.jnj.com), stocks are falling.  Obama’s donut-hole fix will affect these drug companies’ financial performance.  On top of that, a lot of their patents are expiring. 

Health insurance companies are doing well because this round of reform is perceived to be creating demand for them.  Anti-discrimination is written in the announcement.  However, it is to “prohibit pre-existing condition exclusions, and prohibit discrimination in favor of highly compensated individuals” (the CNN does not say this.  You have to look it up from the summary link above).  In terms of “pre-existing condition”, that can translate to underwriting, i.e. if an applicant has to be accepted or not.  What it does not say is this: can the pricing of the same product be different to different individuals based on pre-existing condition?  Or based on zip code?  Based on county?  Based on race?  Which health condition is race related have you heard of lately?  Some explanation about “discrimination in favor of highly compensated individuals” is obviously needed. 

Obama knows health care reform did not work in the legislature.  He more likely than not knows his magic does not work on the Republican senators.  Does he believe his proposal will get some moderate Republicans?  If he wants to work getting moderate Republicans, then he would be work on them individually behind closed door.  And we will end up seeing a big announcement with some of these congressmen.  Instead, we see Obama’s proposal.  So, this is HIS proposal.  The other guys are missing.  So, he is making a political move to show to the electorate he has done his homework and tries to paint that the other guys are the real road blocks. 

Yes, they are.  And we have known it for a quite while.  And in fact, they have been encouraged by the voters to be road blocks.  Therefore, Obama better have planned a second move after Republicans’ predicted uncooperative stand.  If you truly believe that the Republican road blocks will not make Obama’s proposal work, then you should ask if these price levels sustain.

February 22, 2010 Posted by | Current Events, Election 2010, health care reform, obama, politics, US politics, wordpress-political-blogs | 1 Comment

Massachusetts Is Pushing Up Your 401k

As Massachusetts comes to a close to their choice US Senator, investors from the rest of world are approving their expected result: Republicans will win this election.  How does a local election affect your 401k?  Is that the only factor that drives up your 401k value?  No, certainly not.  However, the spike of not only a few companies (Aetna, NYSE:AET; Johnson and Johnson, NYSE:JNJ), but also industries’ stock value and the appreciation of US dollars against most currencies and in particular against Chinese yuan (CNY) is a good indication that this fluctuation is not due to some company quarterly earnings but some political event (Cadbury is the exception, NYSE: CBY).

NYSE and S&P500 are going up today.  What is the top concern of investors these days?  The future US fiscal deficit.  What will be the greatest contributor to future US fiscal deficit?  Health care.  Obama’s health care reform will have a direct impact to US fiscal deficit.  Not having an one-sided US Senate also means banking reform will have to have greater compromise.  Rumor has it that Consumer Financial Protection Agency may be dropped. 

Are investors disapproving Obama administration?  Investors probably will donate to his re-election campaign as well as his opponent’s in 2012, not to mention both parties’ 2010 congressional election funds.  Investors simply see that the new policies do not provide more values.  Investors like risk management tools that enhance certainties of any kind.  Risk certainty is what helps investors choose their company ownerships (i.e. how your mutual fund manager buys stocks for you).  Therefore, one cannot assume investors hate governments at all times. 

Health care reform in the States will create a higher demand for health care products, such as health care insurance, drugs, and equipments.  The list will be endless.  Financial industry reform will provide greater risk control or at least monitoring over systematic risk.  However, health care reform is so broad that no one can understand while financial reform favors the establishment of the financial industry and not the investors (you, a typical 401k or IRA investor).  

Obama’s options?  House (Nancy Pelosi) will have to pass the legislation at its current form or suffer a longer and more arduous negotiation between House and Senate for any bill senate passed, including the health care bill.  Divert attention from anything unpleasant to immigration legislations.  Haiti will induce refugee problems.  Mexican border violence will induce debate about border security, for instance border fence.

January 19, 2010 Posted by | america politics, banking, Barack Obama, Current Events, health care reform, obama, opinion, politics, US politics, wordpress-political-blogs | Leave a comment

Obamacare and Copenhagen Accord: Non-Events

US dollar continues its rise against Euro and British pound.  The recent news regarding the development of health care bill and Copenhagen accord did very little to reverse this movement.  Why does it matter?  What does it mean?

The appreciation of US dollar indicates the development of the Obamacare does at best not weaken the confidence of the US economy or even improve the fiscal deficit in the future years and at worst not prevent US from being the temporary safe haven being the money parking lot.  Similarly, since Copenhagen accord is not a binding document, it provides no teeth to decrease carbon emission.  Thus, the mod of economic activity will not run into the risk of major shuffling in the United States.

Certainly a series of quarterly earnings following Copenhagen accord in the United States helps.  However, Obamacare and Copenhagen accord could have set how the future game rules will be structured not only in the States but also in the world, only that the States may have to bear the biggest brunt of this episode. 

In particular, Obamacare is not sending health insurance companies’ stock price downward.  On the contrary, health insurance companies have been performing very well in light of the Great Depression.   Either the market has already factored in all the political risk premium or the market actually considers them as non-events thus far.

December 22, 2009 Posted by | advocacy, america politics, health care reform, opinion, politics, US politics, wordpress-political-blogs | Leave a comment

Did Centrists Republicans Just Defeat Obama-Care?

Democratic Senator Baucus is presenting a compromise health care bill in the Senate without public option whereas CNN reports that Obama is finally drafting his own version with a trigger for public option.  The Gang of Six has three Republicans.  They are: Enzi, Snowe and Grassley.  Grassley says in CNN that public option is Obama Care.  Now that Baucus proposal does not have it, Grassley and the like may actually have a way to claim victory that they will have defeated Obama Care.  If so, then health care will pass a giant step. 

 

With the sections 2701 to 2703 and 2706, 152, Baucus essentially creates an analogous health care version of Equal Credit Opportunity Act.  The impact of this idea will be long lasting, much more profound than Equal Credit Opportunity Act not because of any anti-discrimination, but because insurance business is completely centered on selecting good risks, i.e. choosing the less risky applicants, in any kind of insurance product.  One example is that insurers give a different price of life insurance based on occupation of applicant.  If you are a fireman, then your rate is higher.  If you are in the army, you rate is higher.  That is the reason insurance companies are not allowed to use DNA to determine price of health or life insurance.  Similarly, if you are younger, your auto insurance is higher.  While your age can be a factor in auto insurance application, your age cannot be a factor in your credit application, as prescribed by Equal Credit Opportunity Act.

 

This piece of legislation is about health insurance.  Therefore, life insurance can continue to legally discriminate life insurance applicants based on existing conditions. 

 

Health insurance companies underwriting procedures will have to change, industry wide, nationally.  Health insurers are Cigna, Aetna (NYSE:AET), Humana (NYSE:HUM), UnitedHealth (NYSE:UNH) Blue Cross Blue Shield (http://bcbs.com).  Here is an example: Just like some life insurers give better rates for their life insurance policies, some companies may have been marketing well among smokers for health insurance policies.  If Baucus proposal goes through, all health insurance companies may have the same application procedure to underwrite a smoker.  Smokers market is now thinner than before for this smoker specializing insurer.  We do not quite know if discrimination against occupation is covered by Baucus, or age or anything else.  However, a lot of compliance work will get involved in the future. 

 

How will it enforced?  Is Baucus planning to have Department of Labor to have a stronger role in health care enforcement?  Insurance is completely state regulated, for now.  Will this kind of enforcement be incorporated in Treasury? 

 

We will know by the time our speech entertainer Obama gives another performance tomorrow.

September 8, 2009 Posted by | activism, advocacy, Barack Obama, Current Events, 美國, health care reform, opinion, politics, Regulation, US politics, wordpress-political-blogs | Leave a comment